scope:

I INTRODUCTION

A. Purpose of the Report

This report collects and summarizes the results of research on air-quality modeling performed at SRI International for the American Petroleum Institute during the period June 1981 to June 1983. The objectives and organization of the study are described in Section I.B. Because the details of the work are reported in several volumes, Section I.C. provides a brief guide to the documents.

It is our intent that this executive summary also serve to unify the various lines of research pursued in the study. Accordingly, Chapter II sketches the development of the work in historical perspective, and discusses the views that motivated the work. Chapters III through VI summarize the results of the various phases of the study. Conclusions and recommendations are contained in Chapter VII.

B. Objectives and Organization of the Study

The scope of the study consisted of two broad topics:

• Statistical evaluation of the performance of an air-quality model known as the Empirical Kinetic Modeling. Approach (EKMA)

• Development of a method that uses Monte Carlo techniques in conjunction with air-quality models to assess the effectiveness of strategies for controlling air pollution

The work was divided into three phases whose objectives are described below:

Phase I -- Evaluate and compare the performance of three EKMA/1 versions using measurements from St. Louis, Missouri.

Objectives:

• Evaluate EKMA/1 performance as a predictor of maximum ozone concentrations in the St. Louis urban area.

• Compare the performance of EKMA/1 using three different chemical submodels.

Phase II -- Evaluate and compare the performance of three EKMA/2 versions using data from St. Louis, Missouri, and Houston, Texas.

Objective:

• Evaluate EKMA/2 performance as a predictor of maximum ozone levels in St. Louis and Houston.

• Compare the performance of EKMA/2 and EKMA/1 for St. Louis.

• Compare the performance of EKMA/2 using three different chemical submodels and data for St. Louis and Houston.

• Phase III -- Develop Statistical Methodology for Control Strategy Analysis

Objective:

• Develop, test, and document a method based on Monte Carlo techniques for evaluating strategies for air pollution control.

C. Guide to the Documentation

The entire report consists of the following five volumes, which are bound separately:

• Volume I -- Executive Summary

• Volume II -- Phase I. Evaluation and Comparison of the Performance of Three EKMA/1 Versions Using Measurements from St. Louis.

• Volume III -- Phase II. Evaluation and Comparison of the Performance of Three EKMA/2 Versions Using Measurements from St. Louis and Houston.

• Volume IV -- Development and Testing of Statistical Methodology for Control Strategy Analysis

• Volume V -- User's Guide to the Control Strategy Analysis Program