scope:

Abstract:

The original NAOMS survey data (called Phase 1) was posted on a publicly accessible website. Congress asked NASA to revise the redaction of the NAOMS survey data so that more information could be released. At the same time, NASA had to revise the NAOMS data presentation (called Phase 2 data) so as to protect (as much as possible) the identity of pilots who were the participants in the survey. One particular step which NASA took in the NAOMS data release project was to perform a risk analysis. The purpose of this risk analysis was to provide a comparison of the probability of identity disclosure between the NAOMS phase 1 and phase 2 data presentation.

The NAOMS risk analysis was a very schedule driven task to solve a unique mathematical research problem within several months. Unique, conceptual problems were involved in the development of the mathematical model. This was especially true because there were no standard predecessors for our particular problem. The probabilities for each of the enabling events in the success-tree had a substantial amount of uncertainty ( ie. wide ranges). This is due to the fact that any of the input variables for models to estimate those probabilities would have large uncertainties. The schedule commitment by NASA to solve a problem should not be made without understanding the nature of the problem and the full resources needed (including time).